Artificial Intelligence: since 1818 the seeds of AI had been sown - will it destroy the British economy and kill everyone by 2030? ICSM investigates

By Harry Mottram: Ever since Mary Shelley wrote the story of Frankenstein  in 1818, and created an artificial human equipped with human like artificial intelligence (AI) these monsters have attempted to kill us. So far AI and the robots have failed – but those in control of AI and robots keep hyping up the possibility to frighten us and most importantly drive investment in the industry rejecting any regulation.

From Hal in 2001 A Space Odessey to Isaac Asimov’s I Robot we have been fighting a decade’s long war of survival – which AI hasn't and can't win. The latest scare stories are once again in the media – this time apparently AI will kill all humans by 2030 – often from those involved in the business: "In 6–12 months … a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet – potentially causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage,” Dario Amodei, chief executive of Anthropic was saying this month - quoted in the Guardian in an article entitled: Could AI really wipe out humanity? The answer is no.

However, AI which is essentially computer generated assistance for mundane tasks such as completing paperwork or simply looking up at a glance how many goals did Manchester United scored in 1931 – is very helpful. The idea AI will kill us all by making a virus like Covid – but much worse – or taking down the internet and all power and utility grids is for the birds. In Isaac Asimov’s rules of robots he wrote in 1942: A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm; A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law; and a robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.

Lawyers use AI to simply and sumerise lengthy documents, journalists to speed up research, teachers to help with marking and assessment and in manufacturing to spot which elements in the production line will breakdown. In medicine IT can help to analyze X-rays and CT scans apart from recovering documents such as medical records for patients. Its uses will grow but they are no more than helpful additions. It is true some industries will suffer - translation between languages for instance will increasingly see professional language translators lose out. And school teachers and university lecturers will struggle to work out if their students have cheated and completed their essays with AI. But the idea that AI will produce Hollywood movies and best selling novels is unlikely - we prefer people to be behind creativity and teachers just need students to pick up a fountain pen and write their essays in long hand to pass exams - as we did in the past.

Ian Carrotte of ICSM said that every major innovation in history has had the same amount of fears in society – with the luddites saying it’s the end of humanity to those in the new tech announcing high flown claims for its future. Neither are correct. The CEO of ICSM – the business membership group dedicated to protecting against bad debts and late payments looked back to when photography was invented. Some pioneers of photography said it was to be the end of painting, illustration and drawing. Of course it wasn’t – photography like AI was just another innovation that has helped enhance human progress – not ended it.

However, Ian Carrotte said there was one possible downside of AI - and that was the AI investment bubble. He said: "Like the black tulips investment scam in 17th century Holland, of the 19th Century South Sea Bubble - or even the Dot Com Boom of the 90s - massive speculation about a potential investment bubble can pop - and the current insane amounts being pumped into AI with any sign of a profit could end up with an articial nothing."

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